河北省美国白蛾预测预警体系研究
Research on Prediction and Alarm of Hyphantria Cunea Drury in Hebei
【中文摘要】 本文对河北省内美国白蛾的风险分析、发生情况预测、建立预警体系及预警系统方面进行了研究。根据调查及文献研究,利用GARP生态位模型预测了美国白蛾在中国的潜在适生区,并在此基础上参照有害生物危险性定量分析方法,对美国白蛾在河北省的危险性做出综合评价;根据美国白蛾的生物学特性、结合气象资料及河北省森防站提供数据的基础上利用马尔科夫链法、模糊数学法为示例研究美国白蛾的发生范围及发生概率;在综合考虑警源、警兆、警情等要素的基础上建立了美国白蛾预警指标体系,并利用Visual Studio 2005为开发环境建立了美国白蛾预测预警系统,取得以下研究结果:1通过对美国白蛾在中国潜在适生区预测研究表明:美国白蛾在我国的适生区分布范围:21.20°N～46.33°N,97.80°E～132.11°E和36.81°N～41.8°5N,76.00°E～94.66°E(新疆的部分地区)。将美国白蛾在中国的潜在适生区分为最适生区、次适生区、半适生区和非适生区,并对预测结果进行拟合优度检验,证明所选择的最优模型具有显著的统计学意义。2害虫预测预报是害虫综合管理重要的组成部分,是一项监测昆虫未来种群变动趋势的重要工.作。通过对河北部分地区美国白蛾发生范围、发生概率预测,以期对森防站正确估测美国白蛾未来发生趋势提供借鉴。3建立美国白蛾预警指标体系直接、客观的反映了虫害发生过程中正在或潜在的影响灾害结果的不同属性特征的指标。这些指标在美国白蛾虫害预警过程中具备灾害描述、结果评价、预警未来发展的功能。4美国白蛾预测预警系统实现了对河北省美国白蛾历史资料的数字化存储、信息化管理和统计分析自动化。系统集合地理信息系统,网络信息传输实现了对河北省内美国白蛾进行定殖分析、监测预测预警、发布预警信息的功能。系统操作简单,具有很强的实用性。 还原
【英文摘要】 In this paper, Hebei Province, within the risk analysis of Hyphantria cunea, the occurrence of the forecast, the establishment of early warning system and early warning systems were studied. According to the survey and literature research, the use of GARP niche models to predict the fall webworm in China suitable area, and on this basis the risk of harmful organisms with reference to quantitative analysis methods, the risk of Hyphantria cunea in Hebei Province to make a comprehensive evaluation; According to the biological characteristics of Hyphantria cunea, combined with meteorological data and The Forest Pest Management and Quarantine Station in Hebei Province to provide data based on the use of regression analysis, Population base method, Markov chain method, fuzzy mathematical method for the sample period of study of the occurrence of the scope and probability of occurrence; taking into account police sources, warning signs, police and other elements of the situation based on earl.y warning indicators of Hyphantria cunea and use Visual Studio 2005 development environment for the establishment of early warning systems for forecasting Hyphantria cunea , made the following findings:1 the study of Hyphantria cunea in China suitable area shows that the forecast: Hyphantria cunea in China suitable area range: 21.20°N 46.33°N, 97.80°E 132.11°E and 36.81°N 41.8°5N, 76.00°E 94.66°E (part of the Xinjiang province). Hyphantria cunea in China will be the potential suitable area is divided into the most suitable Health Area, at suitable area, semi-suitable and non-suitable areas, and predict the results of fit test to prove that the optimal model choice with significant statistical significance.2 Forecasting pest integrated pest management is an important component of the insect is a monitor the future trend of population changes in the important work. In some areas of Hebei , through the study of the scope of Hyphantria cunea occurs, the forecast probability of occurrence, providing a view to a correct estimation of the Hyphantria cunea for The Forest Pest Management and Quarantine Station to get the trend of the future for reference.3 to establish an early warning indicator system cunea direct and objective reflection of the process of pest occurrence or potential is the result of the impact of disasters, the characteristics of th
