天津环境库兹涅茨曲线——基于二氧化碳排放强度角度的分析

论文编号:JR242  论文字数:15262,页数:25  附任务书，开题报告

摘    要

 改革开放以来，我国二氧化碳排放总量从1978年的148329×t增加到2008年的689654xt，年均增长5．3％。与此同时，二氧化碳排放强度总体上呈较快下降趋势，但1999年以后下降速度放缓。我国二氧化碳排放强度明显高于国际水平，在冰川融化、全球气候变暖的情况下,以为主的温室气体的排放越来越引起人们的关注。2009年12月在丹麦首都哥本哈根召开的联合国气候变化大会更是要求各国落实减排目标,采取应对气候变化的行动。发展低碳经济已成为世界趋势，现代城市是区域经济发展的主体，也是二氧化碳排放的集中地，低碳城市建设是国家实现低碳经济目标的重要途径。环境库兹涅茨曲线( EKC)是指当一个国家经济发展水平较低的时候，环境污染的程度较轻，但是随着人均收入的增加，环境污染由低趋高，环境恶化程度随经济的增长而加剧；当经济发展达到一定水平后，也就是说，到达某个临界点或称“拐点”以后，随着人均收入的进一步增加，环境污染又由高趋低，其环境污染的程度逐渐减缓，环境质量逐渐得到改善。环境库兹涅茨曲线揭示了环境质量随经济增长出现先恶化后改善的关系。本文以经济增长与环境污染水平计量模型— — 环境库兹涅茨曲线为理论基础，分析天津市经济增长与二氧化碳排放之间的关系，其环境库兹涅茨曲线与传统的环境库兹涅茨曲线形态不同，出现波动性特征，呈“U型+倒U 型”。

关键词：环境库茨涅兹曲线；经济增长；二氧化碳排放；天津市

ABSTRACT

 Since the reform and opening up, China''''s carbon dioxide emissions from 1978 148329×t increase to the 2008 689654xt, with annual growth of 5.3%. Meanwhile, the carbon dioxide emissions intensity a faster decline in general, but slow decline after 1999. Carbon dioxide emissions intensity in China is higher than international index. Because of glaciers and global warming, greenhouse gas emissions have attracted wide attention. December 2009, the UN climate change conference which held in the Danish capital Copenhagen also requires countries implement emission reduction goals, take action on climate change. Developing a low carbon economy has become the world trend. Modern cities are the subject of regional economic development, but also carbon emissions high-rises, low carbon urban construction is an important way to achieve a low carbon economy target. Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) relation, taken as a dynamical law, indicates that environmental quality would deteriorate in the initial phases of the growth process, while, once surpassed some given threshold value of income level, further growth will go along with its improvement. Environmental Kuznets curve reveals environment qualities worsen with economic growth after the first appeared to improve relations. Based on economic growth and environmental pollution levels econometric model -- environmental Kuznets curve as the theoretical basis, Tianjin economic growth and the relationship between the carbon dioxide emissions is analyzed. It is reveals that environmental Kuznets curve has traditional environmental Kuznets curve shape, appearing different characteristics, showing "volatility u-shape + pour u-shaped".

Keywords: environmental kuznets curve；economic growth；carbon dioxide emissions；Tianjin

目    录

引    言   1
第一章  环境库兹涅兹曲线   3
一、EKC研究内容 3
二、EKC评价 5
第二章  天津经济增长及二氧化碳排放的现状分析   8
一、天津经济增长现状 8
二、天津市二氧化碳排放强度分析 8
三、天津经济和社会发展与低碳城市建设 9
第三章  天津二氧化碳排放的环境库兹涅兹曲线的实证分析 10
一、模型构建及数据来源 10
二、指标的量化及其计算结果 12
三、检验方法 13
第四章  结论及政策建议   16
一、研究结论 16
二、政策建议 17
结束语   19
参考文献 20
致    谢 22