居民小区日常供电的模糊综合评判及模糊控制模型

论文编号:XXLW066 论文字数:11966,页数:29

摘   要
 随着电力体制改革的深入发展，人们对电能质量的逐渐重视，供电情况的综合评估和经济管理已经受到电力部门和用户的广泛关注。评判电网供电情况的优劣情况就能够从宏观上直接反映出供电合理配置的情况，为以后的电力规划和发展提供更好的改进依据,对电网的量化管理具有重要的现实意义。
 本文将模糊综合评判模型应用于对居民小区日常供电情况的评价，通过参考相关文献并听取专家的意见，选取了“技术合理性”、“运行安全性”、“供电可靠性”和“经济效益性”四类总共20个指标作为评判的因素集，以“优秀”、“良好”、“一般”、“较差”和“很差”五个评语建立评判集。本文采用层次分析法来确定权重，根据判断矩阵，得到了各级指标的评判矩阵，再对将评判结果组合作为新的评判矩阵，对居民小区日常电力供应情况进行评判。
 通过编制MATLAB，同时结合Excel进行计算，由合成算子的不同而得到的四个模型的应用结果表明，四个模型的评判结果一致为“优秀”，该模型评判结果符合实际情况，具有一定的现实效用。
 在设计小区供电模糊控制系统时，应用Zadeh模糊推理理论，用模糊集来描述实际不确定性的运行情况。根据模糊IF-THEN规则给出供电的相关隶属度函数，将集合模糊化，经过Zadeh推理机推理得到输出集合，由重心解模糊器将模糊集合转化为实值数,完成整个推理过程。

关键词：供电评判 模糊综合评判 模糊控制  Zadeh推理机 供电合理配置

Abstract
 With the further development of the electricity system, people are more and more emphasis on power quality, Comprehensive evaluation of electricity supply situation and the economic management has been the electricity sector and the user''''s attention.Evaluation of strengths and weaknesses of power supply situation can directly reflect the rational electricity supply situation and provide a better basis for improved for electricity planning and development in the future.It has practical significances in the Quantitative management of the electricity.
 The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is applied to the situation of daily electricity supply on the residential area in this paper.By referencing to relevant literature and expert advice it selected the "technical rationality", "running safety", "reliability" and "economic benefits" of these four that those are a total of 20 indicators as evaluation factors set,then established a set of five reviews evaluation-"Excellent", "Good", "General", "Poor" and "Bad".It choosed AHP to determine weights, Obtained at all levels of evaluation matrix according to Matrix, then organized of evaluation results as a new evaluation matrix to judge the daily electricity supply situation on the residential area.
 Through using MATLAB to program and using Excel to calculate，the four models by different Composite operators obtained the same results-“Excellent”. The evaluation results are in keeping with reality and have Practical utilities.
 Designing the Fuzzy control of residential electricity supply system,Using Fuzzy sets to describe the operation of the actual uncertainty on Zadeh fuzzy reasoning.According to fuzzy IF-THEN rules,obtaining the membership function related to electricity supply, then fuzzy the sets , get the output set By Zadeh inference and turn the Fuzzy sets into real numbers by Ambiguity focus device.
 
 Keywords:  Electricity Evaluationc；Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation；Fuzzy control；Zadeh’s Fuzzy inference；Rational distribution of electricity supply
 
目   录
摘   要 i
Abstract ii
第一章   前  言 1
第二章  模糊综合评判 2
2.1  模糊综合评判综述 2
2.2  模糊综合评判的优缺点 2
2.3  一级模糊综合评判 3
2.3.1模糊综合评判要素集合 3
2.3.2一级模糊综合评判的步骤 3
2.4 多层次模糊综合评判 5
2.4.1多层次模糊综合评判的步骤 5
2.4.1多层次模糊综合评判的模型 5
第三章 居民小区日常供电的模糊综合评判 1
3.1　评价指标体系的建立 1
3.2建立评语集 2
3.3指标权重确定 2
3.3.1二级指标权重确定 2
3.3.2一级指标权重确定 4
3.3.3矩阵一致性检验 4
3.4 确定评判矩阵 5
3.5模糊综合评判 6
3.5.1二级综合评判 6
3.5.2一级综合评判 6
第四章  评判结果分析 8
第五章 小区日常供电的初步模糊控制模型 10
5.1模糊控制原理 10
5.2 模糊控制基本步骤 10
5.3 小区供电系统的初步模糊控制 13
致  谢 15
参考文献 16
附录 17
附录A 技术合理性中的各指标的专业名词定义 17
附录B 电能质量国家相关标准 17
附录C 求解矩阵的特征值和特征向量的程序及结果 18