美国GDP对美元走势的影响

论文编号:XXLW093 论文字数:11665,页数:25

摘要

 美元作为目前世界上最主要的储备货币，世界上其他各国的货币都与其挂钩，美元指数强弱可以直接或者间接地反映出各国的货币汇率的强弱。本文首先写了研究的目的、解释了论文涉及到的各个名词的概念。接着收集了历年美国GDP数据和美元指数数据，用Eviews软件对它们进行相关分析，找出他们之间的关系。另外还举例了在美国GDP公布前后美元指数的变化，在发生经济危机GDP和美元指数的变化，看是否仅仅美国GDP这一因素对美元走势有影响。本文还举例了其他因素对美元走势的影响。最后得出结论，不只是美国GDP这个因素对美元走势有影响，而是在多种因素共同影响下，从而导致美元指数在时刻变化的。
 关键词：美元指数 GDP 相关分析

Abstract
 As the world major reserve currency, the US dollar is linked with other countries currency. The strength of the dollar index reflects the strength of national currencies directly or indirectly. This article tells us first the objective of the study, and then explained the various papers related to the concept of the paper. Then collecting the U.S. GDP and the dollar index data over the years, using Eviews on their correlation analysis, this paper try to find out their relationship. Also it gives the examples which show the changes of the United States dollar index before and after the release of GDP and the changes of the US GDP and the dollar index in the event of economic crisis to see whether GDP is a factor to affect on the U.S. dollar. This article also provides examples of other factors to affect the dollar index. In conclusion, not just the factor that GDP impact on the U.S. dollar, but under the other various factors lead to the changes of the dollar index at the same time.
Keywords: dollar index; GDP; correlation

 目  录
内容摘要.....................................................................Ⅰ
ABSTRACT...................................................................Ⅱ
目  录 Ⅲ
第一章    绪论 1
1.1研究的动机与目的 1
 1.1.1美元的概念和影响.....................................................1
 1.1.2经济数据GDP概述....................................................2
 1.2 研究的背景...............................................................3
1.3 研究的方法...............................................................3
 1.3.1 一元线性回归分析.....................................................5
1.4 研究的工具...............................................................6
1.5 论文内容概述.............................................................6
 1.6 论文各个参数的介绍.......................................................6
第二章    正文.................................................................8
2.1正文导读..................................................................8
 2.1.1 用OLS方法求模型的参数估计............................................8
 2.1.2 自相关检验............................................................9
 2.1.3 自相关修正............................................................9
 2.2  GDP公布前后美元指数的变化.............................................11
 2.3  两个特殊时期的分析.....................................................13
 2.3.1 98-99年经融危机分析..................................................13
 2.3.2 07-08年经融危机分析..................................................14
 2.3 其他数据................................................................16
第三章   结论.................................................................20
致  谢........................................................................21
参考文献......................................................................22