电力负荷预测技术

论文编号:JD957   论文字数:24204,页数:51有开题报告和任务书

摘要
 城市民用负荷主要是城市居民的家用电器，它具有年年增长的趋势，以及明显的季节性波动特点，而且民用负荷的特点还与居民的日常生活和工作的规律紧密相关。商业负荷，主要是指商业部门的照明、空调、动力等用电负荷，覆盖面积大，且用电增长平稳，商业负荷同样具有季节性波动的特性。虽然商业负荷在电力负荷中所占比重不及工业负荷和民用负荷，但商业负荷中的照明类负荷占用电力系统高峰时段。此外，商业部门由于商业行为在节假日会增加营业时间，从而成为节假日中影响电力负荷的重要因素之一。 工业负荷是指用于工业生产的用电，一般工业负荷的比重在用电构成中居于首位，它不仅取决于工业用户的工作方式(包括设备利用情况、企业的工作班制等)，而且与各行业的行业特点、季节因素都有紧密的联系，一般负荷是比较恒定的。农村负荷则是指农村居民用电和农业生产用电。此类负荷与工业负荷相比，受气候、季节等自然条件的影响很大，这是由农业生产的特点所决定的。农业用电负荷也受农作物种类、耕作习惯的影响，但就电网而言，由于农业用电负荷集中的时间与城市工业负荷高峰时间有差别，所以对提高电网负荷率有好处。
 
关键字：MATLAB；电力负荷预测；算法

Abstract
 City Civil load household appliances are mainly urban residents, it has an upward trend year after year, as well as significant seasonal fluctuations in the characteristics and load characteristics of civil with people''s normal lives and work of the law are closely related. Commercial load, mainly refers to the commercial sector, lighting, air conditioning, power and other electricity load, covering an area of large and steady demand growth, commercial load equally the characteristics of seasonal fluctuations. While the commercial load in the power load is less than the proportion of industrial load and civilian load, but the commercial load in the lighting category occupied by the power system peak load periods. In addition, the business sector due to increased business activities in the holidays, hours of operation, thus becoming the holidays, that affect an important factor in the power load. Industrial load is used for industrial production of electricity, the proportion of general industrial load in the composition of the primacy of power, it depends not only on industrial users of the work (including equipment utilization, enterprise work-shift, etc.), but also with various sectors of the industry characteristics, seasonal factors, have close ties, the general load is relatively constant. Rural load refers to the rural population and agricultural production of electricity consumption. Such load and industrial load compared to climate, season and other natural conditions, have a great impact, this is determined by the characteristics of agricultural production decisions. Agriculture and electricity load also affected by crop type, farming practices, the impact, but on the power grid, since the concentration of agriculture and electricity load at peak time and the urban-industrial time, the difference, so good for improving the power load rate.
 
Keyword：MATLAB；Power Load Forecasting；Algorithm 

摘要 I
Abstract II
引言 1
1 电力负荷预测综述 1
1.1 电力负荷预测的含义 1
1.2、电力负荷预测的意义 1
2、电力负荷分析 2
3、电力负荷预测的内容及程序 3
3.1、电力负荷预测的内容 3
3.2、电力负荷预测的程序 4
4、电力负荷预测模型及基本算法 6
4.1、电力负荷预测模型 6
4.2、电力负荷预测基本算法 11
5、电力短期负荷预测研究 17
5.1、基于温度准则的外推方法 17
5.2、基于人工神经网络日负荷预测 19
6、电力系统短期负荷预测建模及MATLAB实现 25
6.1、基于神经网络的预测原理 25
6.2、电力系统短期负荷预测建模及MATLAB实现 26
结束语 35
参考文献 36
致谢 38
附录Ⅰ：归一化MATLAB代码 39
附录Ⅱ：完整的MATLAB 代码 41