人民币升值对我国经济的利与弊

论文字数:16526,页数:17    论文编号:GM278

摘要
 本文试图分析自2005年7月21日中国汇率制度改革以来，人民币汇率逐步升值，并于2007年进入加速升值期的问题。本文试图探讨促成人民币升值的国内外因素，剖析人民币升值以后对国内各产业和地区及对国际社会的影响，阐述2008年人民币汇率走势及探讨人民币是否会有继续升值的可能，评估人民币升值的利处与弊端,提出一系列应对人民币升值所带来影响的策略。本文从宏观和微观两方面以定量和定性的分析方法重点论述了人民币汇率改革的重要意义，分析了人民币升值对我国经济正反两方面的影响并得出人民币适时升值对我国经济发展不可估量的积极意义。

关键词:  人民币升值；利处；弊端；汇率

Abstract
  This paper attempts to analysis since July 21, 2005 exchange rate system reform in China since the revaluation of the RMB exchange rate gradually, and in 2007 entered the period of accelerated appreciation of the problem. This paper attempts to explore contributed to the appreciation of the RMB at home and abroad, after analyzing the appreciation of the RMB to domestic industries and regions and the international community on the impact of 2008 on the RMB exchange rate movements and to explore whether the RMB appreciation will likely continue to assess the appreciation of the RMB benefits Department and the disadvantages of a series deal with the appreciation of the RMB impact brought about by the strategy. From both the macro and micro to the quantitative and qualitative analysis focuses on the RMB exchange rate reform, the significance of the appreciation of the RMB on China''''s economy, both positive and negative effects and that timely appreciation of the RMB to China''''s economic development inestimable positive.

Key Word:  RMB appreciation    advantages    disadvantages    exchange rate

目        录
摘要 .............................................................................1
Abstract..........................................................................1
1 引言............................................................................2
1.1 研究背景及目的 ...............................................................2
1.2研究综述 ......................................................................3
1.2.1 国内研究现状 ...............................................................3
1.2.2 国外研究现状 ...............................................................3
1.3研究内容及方法 ................................................................3
2 人民币汇率机制改革 .............................................................4
2.1 汇改前人民币汇率制度的弊端 ...................................................4
2.1.1 汇率调节机制僵化导致外汇市场不发达 .........................................4
2.1.2 基础汇率的确定缺乏合理依据 .................................................4
2.1.3 高昂的制度维护成本 .........................................................5
2.1.4 阻碍中国利率市场化的改革进程 ...............................................5
2.2现阶段人民币汇率机制改革 ......................................................5
2.2.1 内容 .......................................................................5
2.2.2 特点及评价 .................................................................6
2.2.3 新汇制下人民币汇率的表现 ...................................................6
3人民币升值的影响因素分析 ........................................................7
3.1助长人民币升值的国际因素 ......................................................7
3.1.1 美国经济失衡因素............................................................7
3.1.2 国际产业分工因素 ...........................................................8
3.2 引发人民币升值的国内因素......................................................8
3.2.1 经济结构因素 ...............................................................9
3.2.2 经济制度因素 ...............................................................9
3.2.3 宏观经济因素 ...............................................................9
3.2.4经济发展因素 ................................................................9
3.2.5 发展战略因素 ..............................................................10
3.2.6 市场预期因素 ..............................................................10
4 人民币升值对我国经济的影响 ....................................................10
4.1 人民币升值对我国经济的有利方面...............................................10
4.1.1本币升值将增强人民币的支付能力..............................................10
4.1.2 提高我国货币政策的独立性 ..................................................11
4.1.3 降低我国发生通货膨胀的可能性并刺激股市 ....................................11
4.1.4 优化我国的产业结构调整.....................................................11
4.1.5 促进我国对外贸易的发展 ....................................................12
4.2 人民币升值对我国经济的不利方面 ..............................................13
4.2.1人民币升值不利于引进外资....................................................13
4.2.2　人民币升值可能加剧我国的资本外流 .........................................13
4.2.3 人民币升值可能引起我国巨额外汇储备缩水 ....................................13
4.2.4 人民币升值会降低中国企业的利润，增加就业压力 ..............................14
5 完善人民币汇率机制的政策建议...................................................14
6 结束语 ........................................................................15
参考文献.........................................................................15
致    谢 ........................................................................15